The monetary policy chessboard in Asia-Pacific has suffered a dramatic upset in recent hours. Today, Monday, February 2, 2026, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CommBank) has issued a forceful analysis note that breaks with the “wait and see” narrative. Luke Yeaman, Chief Economist of the institution, has declared that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can no longer afford patience and will raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points, to 3.85%, at its February meeting.
This shift in stance from one of Australia’s “Big Four” banks has shaken trading desks in the Asian and European sessions, driving volatility in Australian dollar (AUD) pairs. The reason behind this 180-degree turn is clear: inflation data no longer allows for margins of error.
“Core inflation at 3.4% and demand pressures have forced the RBA’s hand. The asymmetric risk of not acting now is much greater than cooling the economy.” — Market Analysis, 02/02/2026
Market Context: Why Now?
For months, the RBA maintained a 3.60% rate, betting that inflation would gradually moderate without the need to suffocate the labor market. However, data published in late January showed that the trimmed mean Consumer Price Index (CPI)—the central bank’s preferred measure—remains stubbornly high at an annual 3.4% (0.9% quarterly), well above the 2-3% target range.
According to CommBank’s note published today, the Australian economy now faces renewed pressures from the demand side, with a labor market that, while showing mixed signals, remains resilient (unemployment rate at 4.1%). The logic is that if the RBA does not act in February, it risks inflation expectations becoming unanchored, forcing much more aggressive and painful hikes later in 2026.
The futures market (ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures) has already reacted, assigning a 67% probability to this rate increase for tomorrow Tuesday’s decision. This contrasts with last week, where the division of opinion was much more marked.
Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Impact on AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair trades today around 0.6942, holding firm despite generalized US dollar strength (DXY at 97.16). The expectation of a hawkish (aggressive) RBA is acting as a fundamental floor for the “Aussie,” counteracting bearish pressure from global risk aversion and anticipation of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
From a technical perspective, the pair is at a critical crossroads. If the RBA confirms the hike tomorrow, we could see an attack on the psychological barrier of 0.7000. Conversely, if the central bank disappoints and maintains rates, liquidation could be swift toward immediate supports.
| Level | Price (AUD/USD) | Technical Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 0.7094 | Recent high (January 29) and bullish channel ceiling. |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7000 | Key psychological level and immediate barrier. |
| Current Price | 0.6942 | Reference price (RBA / Market 02/02/2026). |
| Support 1 | 0.6900 | Technical confluence and previous bullish gap zone. |
| Support 2 | 0.6800 | Medium-term structural support. |
It is important to note that the US dollar index (DXY) has risen today 0.18% to 97.16, driven by geopolitical comments and anticipation of US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, to be released today at 15:00 GMT (forecast: 48.3-48.5). A strong ISM reading could limit AUD/USD gains even if the RBA raises rates.
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Comenzar ahoraImplications for Traders
For retail traders, today’s and tomorrow’s sessions present high-volatility opportunities but also significant “whipsaw” risks.
Key points to consider:
* Watch the 0.7000 level: A confirmed break following the RBA decision could open the door toward 0.7150. However, indicators like RSI (currently at 67) suggest bullish momentum may be cooling, requiring caution against false breakouts.
* Event Management: The decision is released tomorrow. Entering today means betting on speculation (like CommBank’s). The conservative strategy is to wait for the official statement and trade the price reaction.
* DXY Correlation: Don’t lose sight of today’s US PMI. If PMI comes in well above 48.5, USD will strengthen, which could crush any AUD/USD rally even before the RBA speaks.
* Cross Pairs: AUD/JPY could offer a cleaner signal if seeking to avoid US dollar strength, especially considering recent comments about yen weakness from the Japanese government.
Short-Term Outlook
CommBank’s statement that “the game has changed” is not just rhetoric; it reflects a structural shift in how the market is pricing inflation in 2026. If the RBA fulfills this forecast tomorrow, Australia will temporarily decouple from other central banks that have already paused or are cutting rates. This could keep the AUD outperforming on crosses during the first half of February.
However, if the RBA opts to maintain at 3.60% and only offers harsh language without action, disappointment could quickly take AUD/USD back to the 0.6800 zone. The currency is up in the air, and today, February 2, is the day to prepare positions.